Did DNA Prove It Was bin Laden’s Body – Or Not?
Or did it just prove it was a member of his family grouping?? Read the following and wonder at what the government and big media is telling you. At the best the 99.9% quote is misleading.
be the best proof of Osama bin Laden’s death – the grisly photo said to show a
bullet wound to his eye with much of his skull missing.That leaves the DNA test – based on hard science completely familiar only to the best-trained
specialists – as a guarantee to the public that the 9/11 mastermind is truly dead.But how did the administration pull off a complex test on the
scene that normally takes days if not weeks for forensic scientists to verify in
“Now, we can say with 99.9 percent confidence that
this was bin Laden,” John Brennan, assistant to the president for homeland
security and counterterrorism, said Monday.
So why not 100 percent?
in the making that involved tracking down bin Laden’s relatives and getting
tissue samples, ultimately from a cancer-ridden relative who died in the United
States last year, according to reports.First the science: the process of
extracting and purifying the DNA can be done in as little as a half-hour with
right equipment; then experts require a few hours to amplify, analyze and match
it. In order to do that you need a piece of equipment called a genetic analyzer,
a desk-size apparatus that weighs a couple hundred pounds. That likely explains
why bin Laden’s body had to be transported back to Afghanistan for
identification, according to one specialist writing in Popular
Mechanics magazine.Dan Krane, a professor of genetics and a DNA
expert at Wright State University in Ohio, told Popular Mechanics that rapid DNA
tests can look at short tandem repeat sequences in the DNA. Tests that analyze
these are indeed incredibly accurate, he says. The more closely related two
people are, the more repeated patterns they will share.
But Krane and
others — such as William Thompson, a criminology professor at the University of
California, Irvine who is an expert in DNA forensics — say that the 99.9 percent
confidence number, which the U.S. government reportedly arrived at by comparing
the DNA to that of bin Laden’s half-sister, is slightly misleading.
That’s because the results speak to the probability of a relationship
between the two people, not the actual identity of the dead man.
DNA test compared the profile of the man shot in Pakistan with bin Laden’s
family members,” Thompson says, “the results could properly be presented only as
a likelihood ratio, stating the relative likelihood of observing the particular
markers found in the dead man if he were, say, the father or brother of a known
bin Laden family member, than if he were a randomly chosen individual.”
Kane notes that the more appropriate (though perhaps less dramatic) way
to explain the results would be as such: It is about 1000 times more likely the
dead man’s DNA came from a sibling of bin Laden’s sister than from a random
person. “That phrasing is more consistent with how paternity and sibling tests
are typically described,” he tells PM.
But here’s where a complicated
story gets even more confusing: bin Laden had no full siblings. It’s been widely
reported that the federal government collected DNA from bin Laden’s half-sister
when she died in a Massachusetts hospital, and that DNA from other bin Laden
relatives may also have been accrued and used in the identification (though the
government isn’t providing all the details at this time).
It’s all part
of a top-secret Pentagon operation that collects the DNA samples of suspected
and known terrorists and their family members. A 2007 Defense Science Board
report revealed Black Helix, an initiative—apparently dating back to early 2001,
before the 9/11 attacks—that provides a “secure repository and interactive
database, which will focus on archiving, retrieving, and interpreting
biomolecular data for the identification and tracking of terrorist suspects.”
“In the case of half-siblings, it is harder to state that there is a
match because all one can do is state that it is likely the two people shared a
common ancestor (you would not be able to say they are half-brother and -sister
any more than you could say they are cousins),” Steven Laken, the CEO of DNA
analysis firm Cephos, told Popular Mechanics in an email. “In the case of the
bin Ladens, there may have been consanguineous marriages (marriages between
related people), and this makes it trickier.”
But do such databases make
high-profile identifications a done deal? Steven Aftergood of the Federation of
American Scientists tells Popular Mechanics that it’s not foolproof. No matter
how careful or thorough one is, genetic testing always presents the possibility
of errors, ranging from contamination to simple lab mixups.
suggesting that was the case with the bin Laden DNA,” he adds. “But life is
Typical lab-based DNA matching tests like this can take up
to 14 days. They need to be repeated several times to ensure the sample’s not
contaminated from any other DNA sources. But in 2010, a University of Arizona
team presented research on a machine that can do the analysis in just two hours
in a largely automated way.
It’s possible that knowing they were engaged
on a mission to capture bin Laden, U.S. forces arranged for access to a machine
like this to be on quick alert – probably for flying blood, cheek cells, and
other samples taken from the body to the lab for expedited analysis, Time